Wind Insight – An Innovative Tool for Predicting Wind Power Ramps

Wednesday, December 07, 2011
6:00 PM
Free and open to the public

In power systems with high regional wind penetration, a large rapid change in wind power (ramp) may affect electricity market spot prices and can possibly threaten power system security. This seminar will present Wind Insight, a large rapid change wind power forecasting tool, along with a recent market data analysis on the effects of wind power on electricity spot prices in Australia.

Unlike most wind forecasting tools (that consider only a single “grid point” from the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) system forecast for each wind farm) Wind Insight assesses the impact of wind features deviating from their forecast positions on wind farm generation. This technique provides a superior assessment of possible wind generation profiles. Wind Insight then provides alerts of possible large rapid changes, and supplements the point forecast with an animation of expected and possible wind generation for the forecast period. The graphical interface allows forecast users to view the underlying wind patterns and interpret additional potential wind power scenarios to the point forecast and respond accordingly.

The second part of the talk will present key results on the interaction between wind power, demand and electricity prices in the State of South Australia (SA). With 1200 MW of wind power installed, the average wind power production in SA is now greater than 20% of the State’s average demand. The existing interconnector capacity to the adjacent State of Victoria is nominally only 460 MW, but it can decrease further at particular times due to other constraints. The analysis showed that wind power generation in SA has no clear relationship with regional electricity demand, but exhibits a significant effect on electricity market prices, especially increasing the occurrences of negative prices and influencing extremely high prices.

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Nick Cutler

ROAM Consulting